The Importance of Supply Chain Risk Analysis

Oct 13, 2025 by wbrum.org 43 views

Introduction

The supply chain is a critical component of any company's operations, and it plays a vital role in ensuring the smooth flow of goods from upstream to downstream. However, the supply chain is also prone to various risks that can disrupt the entire process and have a significant impact on the company's reputation and bottom line. PT. Sinar Sosro Tanjung Morawa, a leading producer of Sosro Bottle Tea, is no exception to this challenge. The company faces serious challenges in its supply chains, including a lack of raw materials from suppliers, which can lead to a significant risk to the company and its stakeholders.

The Importance of Supply Chain Risk Analysis

Supply chain risk analysis is a critical component of any company's risk management strategy. It involves identifying, assessing, and mitigating potential risks that can disrupt the supply chain and have a significant impact on the company's operations. The House of Risk (HOR) method is a widely used approach to supply chain risk analysis, and it provides a systematic approach to identifying and managing risks in the supply chain.

The House of Risk Method

The House of Risk method is a comprehensive approach to supply chain risk analysis that involves several key steps. The first step is to map the supply chain activity based on the Supply Chain Operation Reference (Scor) model. This model helps in understanding every element in the supply chain and how each element interacts. The company then evaluates the severity, frequency of events (occurrences), and the relationship between risk events and risk agents (risk agents). With this assessment, the company can calculate the Aggregate Risk Potential (ARP) value that provides a general picture of the potential risks encountered.

Step 1: Mapping Supply Chain Activity

The first step in the HOR method is to map the supply chain activity based on the Scor model. This model helps in understanding every element in the supply chain and how each element interacts. The company can use this model to identify the key components of the supply chain, including suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, and customers. By understanding how each element interacts, the company can identify potential risks and develop strategies to mitigate them.

Step 2: Evaluating Risk Severity and Frequency

The next step in the HOR method is to evaluate the severity and frequency of risk events. The company can use a risk matrix to evaluate the severity and frequency of each risk event. The risk matrix is a tool that helps in evaluating the likelihood and impact of each risk event. By using the risk matrix, the company can identify the most critical risks and develop strategies to mitigate them.

Step 3: Identifying Risk Agents

The HOR method also involves identifying risk agents, which are individuals or organizations that can cause harm to the supply chain. The company can use a risk agent matrix to identify the key risk agents and evaluate their potential impact on the supply chain. By understanding the risk agents, the company can develop strategies to mitigate their impact and reduce the risk of disruptions to the supply chain.

Step 4: Calculating Aggregate Risk Potential (ARP)

The next step in the HOR method is to calculate the Aggregate Risk Potential (ARP) value. The ARP value provides a general picture of the potential risks encountered in the supply chain. The company can use the ARP value to identify the most critical risks and develop strategies to mitigate them.

Step 5: Planning Risk Handling Measures

The final step in the HOR method is to plan risk handling measures. The company can use the results of the risk analysis to develop strategies to mitigate the risks identified. The company can use a risk handling matrix to evaluate the effectiveness of each risk handling measure and identify the most effective strategies to mitigate the risks.

Case Study: PT. Sinar Sosro Tanjung Morawa

PT. Sinar Sosro Tanjung Morawa, a leading producer of Sosro Bottle Tea, is a company that faces serious challenges in its supply chains. The company has a complex supply chain that involves multiple suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, and customers. The company has identified several risks in its supply chain, including a lack of raw materials from suppliers, which can lead to a significant risk to the company and its stakeholders.

Risk Identification and Analysis

The company has used the HOR method to identify and analyze the risks in its supply chain. The company has identified 42 risk events and 32 risk agents that need to be considered. The company has used the Pareto 80/20 approach to identify the 7 most significant risk agents to be planned for handling actions.

Risk Management Actions

The company has developed 13 risk management actions to mitigate the risks identified. The actions include improving relationships with suppliers, increasing the quality control of raw materials, and diversifying suppliers. The company has also developed a risk handling matrix to evaluate the effectiveness of each risk handling measure and identify the most effective strategies to mitigate the risks.

Conclusion

The application of the House of Risk method at PT. Sinar Sosro Tanjung Morawa provides a systematic approach to identify and manage risks in the supply chain. The company has used the HOR method to identify and analyze the risks in its supply chain and develop strategies to mitigate them. The company has also developed a risk handling matrix to evaluate the effectiveness of each risk handling measure and identify the most effective strategies to mitigate the risks. By using the HOR method, the company can improve its operational efficiency, maintain customer satisfaction, and ensure business continuity in the future.

Recommendations

Based on the case study, the following recommendations can be made:

Use the HOR method to identify and analyze risks in the supply chain: The HOR method provides a systematic approach to identify and manage risks in the supply chain. The company can use the HOR method to identify and analyze the risks in its supply chain and develop strategies to mitigate them.
Develop a risk handling matrix: The company can use a risk handling matrix to evaluate the effectiveness of each risk handling measure and identify the most effective strategies to mitigate the risks.
Improve relationships with suppliers: The company can improve relationships with suppliers by developing a supplier development program that includes training and development opportunities for suppliers.
Increase the quality control of raw materials: The company can increase the quality control of raw materials by implementing a quality control program that includes regular inspections and testing of raw materials.
Diversify suppliers: The company can diversify suppliers by developing a supplier diversification program that includes identifying and developing new suppliers.

Q: What is the House of Risk method?

A: The House of Risk method is a widely used approach to supply chain risk analysis that provides a systematic approach to identifying and managing risks in the supply chain.

Q: What are the key steps in the House of Risk method?

A: The key steps in the House of Risk method include:

Mapping supply chain activity: This involves understanding every element in the supply chain and how each element interacts.
Evaluating risk severity and frequency: This involves evaluating the likelihood and impact of each risk event.
Identifying risk agents: This involves identifying individuals or organizations that can cause harm to the supply chain.
Calculating Aggregate Risk Potential (ARP): This involves calculating a general picture of the potential risks encountered in the supply chain.
Planning risk handling measures: This involves developing strategies to mitigate the risks identified.

Q: What are the benefits of using the House of Risk method?

A: The benefits of using the House of Risk method include:

Improved operational efficiency: By identifying and mitigating risks, the company can improve its operational efficiency.
Maintaining customer satisfaction: By ensuring business continuity, the company can maintain customer satisfaction.
Ensuring business continuity: By identifying and mitigating risks, the company can ensure business continuity.

Q: What are the common risks in the supply chain?

A: The common risks in the supply chain include:

Lack of raw materials: This can lead to a significant risk to the company and its stakeholders.
Supplier insolvency: This can lead to a disruption in the supply chain.
Transportation disruptions: This can lead to a delay in the delivery of goods.
Quality control issues: This can lead to a risk to the company's reputation and bottom line.

Q: How can the company mitigate the risks in the supply chain?

A: The company can mitigate the risks in the supply chain by:

Improving relationships with suppliers: This can help to ensure a stable supply of raw materials.
Increasing the quality control of raw materials: This can help to ensure that the raw materials meet the company's quality standards.
Diversifying suppliers: This can help to reduce the risk of supplier insolvency.
Developing a risk handling matrix: This can help to evaluate the effectiveness of each risk handling measure and identify the most effective strategies to mitigate the risks.

Q: What is the Pareto 80/20 approach?

A: The Pareto 80/20 approach is a method of identifying the most significant risk agents to be planned for handling actions. It involves identifying the 20% of the risk agents that are responsible for 80% of the risks.

Q: What is the risk handling matrix?

A: The risk handling matrix is a tool that helps to evaluate the effectiveness of each risk handling measure and identify the most effective strategies to mitigate the risks.

Q: How can the company use the House of Risk method to improve its operational efficiency?

A: The company can use the House of Risk method to improve its operational efficiency by:

Identifying and mitigating risks: This can help to reduce the risk of disruptions to the supply chain.
Developing a risk handling matrix: This can help to evaluate the effectiveness of each risk handling measure and identify the most effective strategies to mitigate the risks.
Improving relationships with suppliers: This can help to ensure a stable supply of raw materials.
Increasing the quality control of raw materials: This can help to ensure that the raw materials meet the company's quality standards.

Q: How can the company use the House of Risk method to maintain customer satisfaction?

A: The company can use the House of Risk method to maintain customer satisfaction by:

Ensuring business continuity: This can help to maintain customer satisfaction.
Developing a risk handling matrix: This can help to evaluate the effectiveness of each risk handling measure and identify the most effective strategies to mitigate the risks.
Improving relationships with suppliers: This can help to ensure a stable supply of raw materials.
Increasing the quality control of raw materials: This can help to ensure that the raw materials meet the company's quality standards.

Q: How can the company use the House of Risk method to ensure business continuity?

A: The company can use the House of Risk method to ensure business continuity by:

Identifying and mitigating risks: This can help to reduce the risk of disruptions to the supply chain.
Developing a risk handling matrix: This can help to evaluate the effectiveness of each risk handling measure and identify the most effective strategies to mitigate the risks.
Improving relationships with suppliers: This can help to ensure a stable supply of raw materials.
Increasing the quality control of raw materials: This can help to ensure that the raw materials meet the company's quality standards.