Poisson Regression Analysis

Oct 13, 2025 by wbrum.org 69 views

Introduction

Dengue fever is a disease transmitted by the dengue virus through the bites of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. This disease is predominant in tropical regions, including Indonesia, and Deli Serdang Regency in North Sumatra is one of the places with high levels of endemicity of this disease. In an effort to understand and overcome this health problem, this study aims to develop a mathematical model that describes the factors that influence the case of dengue fever in the area.

Background of the Study

Dengue fever is a significant public health problem in tropical regions, including Indonesia. The disease is transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito, which is found in urban and rural areas. The disease is characterized by high fever, severe headache, and pain behind the eyes. In severe cases, dengue fever can lead to hemorrhaging, organ failure, and even death. In Deli Serdang Regency, dengue fever is a major health concern, with a high number of cases reported every year.

Methodology

The model used in this study is the Poisson regression method, where the response variable is the number of cases of dengue fever sufferers. The predictor variables analyzed include population density, the number of health facilities, the number of health workers, the height of the area, and the proportion of poor families. Understanding the relationship between these variables can help in formulating the prevention and control strategies of dengue fever.

Poisson Regression Analysis

Poisson regression is a statistical method used to model the relationship between a count variable and one or more predictor variables. In this study, Poisson regression was used to analyze the relationship between the number of cases of dengue fever and the predictor variables. The results of the Poisson regression analysis showed that the variable number of health facilities, the number of health workers, the height of the area, and the proportion of poor families all had a significant influence on the number of cases of dengue fever in Deli Serdang Regency.

Negative Binomial Regression Analysis

Negative binomial regression is a statistical method used to model the relationship between a count variable and one or more predictor variables, when the data exhibits overdispersion. In this study, negative binomial regression was used to analyze the relationship between the number of cases of dengue fever and the predictor variables, when the data exhibited overdispersion. The results of the negative binomial regression analysis showed that the variable number of health facilities, the number of health workers, the height of the area, and the proportion of poor families all had a significant influence on the number of cases of dengue fever in Deli Serdang Regency.

Analysis of Affect Factors

Number of Health Facilities

The availability of health facilities affects the capacity of response to disease. The more health facilities that exist, the faster and efficient the handling of dengue fever cases can be done.

Number of Health Workers

The availability of adequate health workers ensures that cases of dengue fever will be detected earlier, which in turn can reduce serious complications and mortality.

Terone Height

An area that has a certain height can affect the population of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Research shows that this mosquito is found more in lowland areas, resulting in an increased risk of dengue fever in the area.

Proportion of Poor Families

The proportion of poor families in an area can affect the risk of dengue fever. Research shows that poor families are more likely to live in areas with poor sanitation and hygiene, which can increase the risk of dengue fever.

Conclusion

From this analysis, it is clear that the modeling of Poisson regression and negative binomial regression can provide a deeper insight about the dynamics of dengue fever in Deli Serdang Regency. Interventions that lead to the improvement of health facilities and infrastructure, increasing the number of health workers, and improving the socio-economic conditions of citizens are important steps in controlling and preventing this disease. With a strategy based on data, it is hoped that the number of cases of dengue fever can be reduced, in line with the objectives of public health.

Recommendations

Based on the findings of this study, the following recommendations are made:

Improvement of Health Facilities and Infrastructure: The government and health authorities should improve the health facilities and infrastructure in Deli Serdang Regency, including the construction of new health facilities and the upgrading of existing ones.
Increase in Number of Health Workers: The government and health authorities should increase the number of health workers in Deli Serdang Regency, including doctors, nurses, and other healthcare professionals.
Improvement of Socio-Economic Conditions: The government and health authorities should improve the socio-economic conditions of citizens in Deli Serdang Regency, including the provision of clean water, sanitation, and hygiene facilities.
Public Awareness and Education: The government and health authorities should conduct public awareness and education campaigns to inform citizens about the risks of dengue fever and the importance of prevention and control measures.

By implementing these recommendations, it is hoped that the number of cases of dengue fever can be reduced, and the disease can be controlled and prevented in Deli Serdang Regency.

Q: What is Poisson Regression?

A: Poisson regression is a statistical method used to model the relationship between a count variable and one or more predictor variables. It is commonly used to analyze data that contains counts or frequencies, such as the number of cases of a disease.

Q: What is the purpose of this study?

A: The purpose of this study is to develop a mathematical model that describes the factors that influence the case of dengue fever in Deli Serdang Regency. The study aims to identify the predictor variables that are associated with the number of cases of dengue fever and to provide a deeper insight into the dynamics of the disease.

Q: What are the predictor variables analyzed in this study?

A: The predictor variables analyzed in this study include population density, the number of health facilities, the number of health workers, the height of the area, and the proportion of poor families.

Q: What is the significance of the number of health facilities and health workers in the study?

A: The number of health facilities and health workers is significant in the study because it affects the capacity of response to disease. The more health facilities and health workers that exist, the faster and efficient the handling of dengue fever cases can be done.

Q: What is the relationship between the height of the area and the risk of dengue fever?

A: Research shows that the height of the area can affect the population of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Areas with a certain height are more likely to have a higher population of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which can increase the risk of dengue fever.

Q: What is the significance of the proportion of poor families in the study?

A: The proportion of poor families is significant in the study because it can affect the risk of dengue fever. Poor families are more likely to live in areas with poor sanitation and hygiene, which can increase the risk of dengue fever.

Q: What are the recommendations based on the findings of this study?

A: The recommendations based on the findings of this study include:

Improvement of Health Facilities and Infrastructure: The government and health authorities should improve the health facilities and infrastructure in Deli Serdang Regency, including the construction of new health facilities and the upgrading of existing ones.
Increase in Number of Health Workers: The government and health authorities should increase the number of health workers in Deli Serdang Regency, including doctors, nurses, and other healthcare professionals.
Improvement of Socio-Economic Conditions: The government and health authorities should improve the socio-economic conditions of citizens in Deli Serdang Regency, including the provision of clean water, sanitation, and hygiene facilities.
Public Awareness and Education: The government and health authorities should conduct public awareness and education campaigns to inform citizens about the risks of dengue fever and the importance of prevention and control measures.

Q: What are the implications of this study for public health policy?

A: The findings of this study have implications for public health policy in Deli Serdang Regency. The study highlights the importance of improving health facilities and infrastructure, increasing the number of health workers, and improving socio-economic conditions to control and prevent dengue fever. The study also emphasizes the need for public awareness and education campaigns to inform citizens about the risks of dengue fever and the importance of prevention and control measures.

Q: What are the limitations of this study?

A: The limitations of this study include:

Data limitations: The study is limited by the availability and quality of data.
Model limitations: The study is limited by the choice of statistical model used to analyze the data.
Generalizability: The study is limited by its focus on Deli Serdang Regency and may not be generalizable to other areas.

Q: What are the future directions for research?

A: The future directions for research include:

Longitudinal studies: Conducting longitudinal studies to examine the temporal relationships between the predictor variables and the number of cases of dengue fever.
Multivariate analysis: Conducting multivariate analysis to examine the relationships between multiple predictor variables and the number of cases of dengue fever.
Intervention studies: Conducting intervention studies to examine the effectiveness of different interventions in controlling and preventing dengue fever.