Analysis of Factors Affecting Coffee Demand

Oct 13, 2025 by wbrum.org 119 views

Introduction

North Sumatra is renowned as one of the largest coffee producers in Indonesia, with a rich history of coffee cultivation dating back centuries. However, the demand for this commodity is influenced by various complex factors, making it essential to examine the significant factors affecting coffee demand in North Sumatra. This study aims to investigate the factors influencing coffee demand in North Sumatra, particularly during the 1985 to 2005 period, using secondary data from the Central Sumatra Statistics Agency (BPS) and the North Sumatra Industry and Trade Office.

Methodology

This study employs the Ordinary Least Squarer (OLS) method with a Koyck model (expectation model) to analyze the effect of several factors on coffee demand in North Sumatra. The factors examined include the price of domestic coffee, future coffee price expectations, tea prices, sugar prices, and per capita income. The results of this study will provide valuable insights into the factors influencing coffee demand in North Sumatra, enabling stakeholders to make informed decisions to promote the growth of the coffee industry in the region.

Analysis of Factors Affecting Coffee Demand

Domestic Coffee Price

The price of domestic coffee has a significant negative influence on demand. This is in line with the theory of demand, which states that consumers tend to reduce consumption when the price of an item increases. As the price of coffee rises, consumers are likely to switch to alternative beverages, such as tea or other coffee substitutes. This finding highlights the importance of maintaining a competitive price for coffee in North Sumatra to ensure sustained demand.

Expectation of Coffee Prices

Future coffee price expectations also have a significant negative effect on coffee demand. If consumers estimate the price of coffee will go down in the future, they tend to postpone purchases and increase demand in the future. This behavior is consistent with the concept of rational expectations, where consumers adjust their consumption patterns based on their expectations of future prices. This finding suggests that coffee producers and policymakers should consider the impact of price expectations on demand when making decisions about coffee production and pricing.

Tea Price

The price of tea, as a coffee substitution, has a positive influence on coffee demand. This means that as the price of tea rises, consumers are more likely to turn to coffee as an alternative beverage. This finding is consistent with the theory of substitution, which states that consumers tend to switch to alternative products when the price of a substitute increases. This suggests that coffee producers and policymakers should consider the impact of tea prices on coffee demand when making decisions about coffee production and pricing.

Sugar Price

The price of sugar, as a complementary item, has a negative influence on coffee demand. This means that as the price of sugar rises, consumers are less likely to consume coffee. This finding is consistent with the theory of complementary goods, which states that consumers tend to reduce consumption of a good when the price of a complementary good increases. This suggests that coffee producers and policymakers should consider the impact of sugar prices on coffee demand when making decisions about coffee production and pricing.

Per Capita Income

Per capita income has a significant positive influence on coffee demand. This means that as per capita income rises, consumers are more likely to consume coffee. This finding is consistent with the theory of normal goods, which states that consumers tend to increase consumption of a good when their income increases. This suggests that coffee producers and policymakers should consider the impact of per capita income on coffee demand when making decisions about coffee production and pricing.

Recommendation

The results of this study provide several recommendations for stakeholders in the coffee industry in North Sumatra:

Increasing the Production and Quality of Coffee

Coffee farmers in North Sumatra need to increase production and maintain the quality of the coffee produced. This is essential to meet increasingly high demand and win competition in the domestic and international markets.

Government Support

The North Sumatra Provincial Government needs to provide support to coffee farmers in the form of incentives, such as capital loans or provision of facilities and infrastructure. This support will help increase coffee production and strengthen the position of North Sumatra as the main coffee producer in Indonesia.

Product Diversification

Coffee farmers can consider diversification of products, such as producing high-quality specialties. This can increase the selling value of coffee and provide greater benefits for farmers.

Market Development

The government needs to support the development of the coffee market, both at home and abroad. This can be done by promoting North Sumatra coffee at international exhibitions and events, as well as facilitating access for farmers to the export market.

By implementing these recommendations, the North Sumatra Coffee Industry can continue to grow and make a significant contribution to the regional economy.

Conclusion

This study has provided valuable insights into the factors influencing coffee demand in North Sumatra. The findings of this study highlight the importance of maintaining a competitive price for coffee, considering the impact of price expectations on demand, and promoting the growth of the coffee industry in the region. By implementing the recommendations outlined in this study, stakeholders in the coffee industry in North Sumatra can work together to promote the growth of the coffee industry and make a significant contribution to the regional economy.

Introduction

The analysis of factors affecting coffee demand in North Sumatra has provided valuable insights into the complex factors influencing the demand for coffee in the region. In this article, we will address some of the frequently asked questions (FAQs) related to the study, providing further clarification and insights into the findings.

Q: What are the main factors affecting coffee demand in North Sumatra?

A: The main factors affecting coffee demand in North Sumatra are the price of domestic coffee, future coffee price expectations, tea prices, sugar prices, and per capita income.

Q: How does the price of domestic coffee affect coffee demand?

A: The price of domestic coffee has a significant negative influence on demand. As the price of coffee rises, consumers are likely to switch to alternative beverages, such as tea or other coffee substitutes.

Q: What is the impact of future coffee price expectations on coffee demand?

A: Future coffee price expectations have a significant negative effect on coffee demand. If consumers estimate the price of coffee will go down in the future, they tend to postpone purchases and increase demand in the future.

Q: How does the price of tea affect coffee demand?

A: The price of tea has a positive influence on coffee demand. As the price of tea rises, consumers are more likely to turn to coffee as an alternative beverage.

Q: What is the impact of sugar prices on coffee demand?

A: The price of sugar has a negative influence on coffee demand. As the price of sugar rises, consumers are less likely to consume coffee.

Q: How does per capita income affect coffee demand?

A: Per capita income has a significant positive influence on coffee demand. As per capita income rises, consumers are more likely to consume coffee.

Q: What are the implications of the study's findings for coffee producers and policymakers?

A: The study's findings have significant implications for coffee producers and policymakers. They should consider the impact of price expectations on demand, promote the growth of the coffee industry in the region, and provide support to coffee farmers in the form of incentives, such as capital loans or provision of facilities and infrastructure.

Q: How can coffee farmers in North Sumatra increase their production and quality of coffee?

A: Coffee farmers in North Sumatra can increase their production and quality of coffee by investing in modern farming techniques, improving their crop yields, and maintaining high-quality standards.

Q: What role can the government play in supporting the coffee industry in North Sumatra?

A: The government can play a significant role in supporting the coffee industry in North Sumatra by providing incentives, such as capital loans or provision of facilities and infrastructure, promoting the growth of the coffee industry in the region, and facilitating access for farmers to the export market.

Q: How can the coffee industry in North Sumatra benefit from product diversification?

A: The coffee industry in North Sumatra can benefit from product diversification by producing high-quality specialties, such as Arabica or Robusta coffee, and promoting these products in the domestic and international markets.

Q: What are the potential benefits of market development for the coffee industry in North Sumatra?

A: The potential benefits of market development for the coffee industry in North Sumatra include increased access to the export market, improved prices for coffee farmers, and increased competition in the domestic market.

Conclusion

The analysis of factors affecting coffee demand in North Sumatra has provided valuable insights into the complex factors influencing the demand for coffee in the region. By addressing some of the frequently asked questions (FAQs) related to the study, we hope to have provided further clarification and insights into the findings.